The Resource Implications of Output Gap Uncertainty in Times of Crisis, Romain Bouis, Boris Cournède and Ane Kathrine Christensen, (electronic resource)

Implications of Output Gap Uncertainty in Times of Crisis, Romain Bouis, Boris Cournède and Ane Kathrine Christensen, (electronic resource)

Label
Implications of Output Gap Uncertainty in Times of Crisis
Title
Implications of Output Gap Uncertainty in Times of Crisis
Statement of responsibility
Romain Bouis, Boris Cournède and Ane Kathrine Christensen
Creator
Contributor
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it essentially resulted from a large increase in the unemployment gap. As indicated by "positive" Taylor rules, output gaps influence policy-controlled interest rates and are in principle important indicators to guide monetary policy decisions. However, these gaps are estimated with a large margin of uncertainty, especially when composed mainly of TFP gaps. Given the high uncertainty of output gap estimates at present, monetary policy should put more weight on alternative indicators of inflation pressure such as wage settlements, trends in unit labour costs and a wide range of indicators of inflation expectations. The recent fall in margins observed in some countries may, for instance, translate into a combination of wage moderation and upward price pressure as firms try to rebuild their margins. In the United States, the large unemployment gap could also keep wage inflation under pressure despite a flattening Phillips curve. These downward pressures should not, however, trigger a deflationary spiral as long as inflation expectations stay anchored. As regards fiscal policy, output gaps remain necessary inputs to assess the fiscal stance adjusted for the cycle, such measures of underlying fiscal balances being reasonably robust to output gap uncertainty
Member of
Cataloging source
FR-PaOEC
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Bouis, Romain
Government publication
international or intergovernmental publication
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
dictionaries
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
  • Cournede, Boris
  • Christensen, Ane Kathrine
Series statement
OECD Economics Department Working Papers,
Series volume
no.977
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
Economics
Label
Implications of Output Gap Uncertainty in Times of Crisis, Romain Bouis, Boris Cournède and Ane Kathrine Christensen, (electronic resource)
Instantiates
Publication
Antecedent source
not applicable
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Control code
805661661
Dimensions
21 x 30 cm
Extent
1 online resource 85 pages
File format
one file format
Form of item
online
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other control number
10.1787/5k95xd7m3szw-en
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)805661661
Label
Implications of Output Gap Uncertainty in Times of Crisis, Romain Bouis, Boris Cournède and Ane Kathrine Christensen, (electronic resource)
Publication
Antecedent source
not applicable
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Control code
805661661
Dimensions
21 x 30 cm
Extent
1 online resource 85 pages
File format
one file format
Form of item
online
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other control number
10.1787/5k95xd7m3szw-en
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)805661661

Library Locations

  • St. Louis Mercantile LibraryBorrow it
    1 University Blvd, St. Louis, MO, 63121, US
    38.710138 -90.311107
  • Thomas Jefferson LibraryBorrow it
    1 University Blvd, St. Louis, MO, 63121, US
    38.710138 -90.311107
  • University ArchivesBorrow it
    703 Lewis Hall, Columbia, MO, 65211, US
  • University of Missouri-St. Louis Libraries DepositoryBorrow it
    2908 Lemone Blvd, Columbia, MO, 65201, US
    38.919360 -92.291620
  • University of Missouri-St. Louis Libraries DepositoryBorrow it
    2908 Lemone Blvd, Columbia, MO, 65201, US
    38.919360 -92.291620
  • Ward E Barnes Education LibraryBorrow it
    8001 Natural Bridge Rd, St. Louis, MO, 63121, US
    38.707079 -90.311355
Processing Feedback ...